Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

Lower flammability limits of flammable ternary organic mixtures: Synergistic behavior

Organic flammable liquids and their mixtures, which possess high risk of combustion and explosion, are widely used as raw materials and solvents in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Lower flammability limits (LFL) is one of the most important parameters to characterize the combustion and explosion hazards of combustible gases and liquid vapors. The LFL of various ternary organic mixtures consist of ketone (acetone and butanone), ester (ethyl acetate) and alcohol (ethanol and isopropanol) were tested at 25 °C and atmospheric pressure. The results showed that resulted LFL values of the experiment were always lower than those calculated by volume fraction weighting method when the volume fraction of alcohol was less than 20 vol% but more than 10 vol%. The co-existence of alcohol and ethyl acetate had synergistic effect on reducing the LFL values of ternary organic mixtures and thus increased their explosive risk. The mechanism of synergistic effect was analyzed, and the results showed that the OH· and H· radicals produced by the oxidation decomposition of alcohols and esters accelerated the oxidation process of ternary organic mixtures, which led to the decrease of experimental LFL values and thus corresponding increased of their explosive risk. This study would be expected to provide some guidance for designing or choosing safer and more suitable ternary organic mixtures prior to their applications for engineering.     

A critical overview of driver recording tools

Introduction: Technological advancements during recent decades have led to the development of a wide array of tools and methods in order to record driving behavior and measure various aspects of driving performance. The aim of the present study is to present and comparatively assess the various driver recording tools that researchers have at their disposal. Method: In order to achieve this aim, a multitude of published studies from the international literature have been examined based on the driver recording methodologies that have been implemented. An examination of more traditional survey methods (questionnaires, police reports, and direct observer methods) is initially conducted, followed by investigating issues pertinent to the use of driving simulators. Afterwards, an extensive section is provided for naturalistic driving data tools, including the utilization of on-board diagnostics (OBD) and in-vehicle data recorders (IVDRs). Lastly, in-depth incident analysis and the exploitation of smartphone data are discussed. Results: A critical synthesis of the results is conducted, providing the advantages and disadvantages of utilizing each tool and including additional knowledge regarding ease of experimental implementation, data handling issues, impacts on subsequent analyses, as well as the respective cost parameters. Conclusions: New technologies provide undeniably powerful tools that allow for seamless data handling, storage, and analysis, such as smartphones and in-vehicle data recorders. However, this sometimes comes at considerable costs (which may or may not pay off at a later stage), while legacy driver recording methods still have their own niches to fill in research. Practical Applications: The present research supports researchers when designing driver behavior monitoring studies. The present work enables better scheduling and pacing of research activities, but can also provide insights for the distribution of research funds.     

Motivated to disengage: The ethical consequences of goal commitment and moral disengagement in goal setting

A growing literature has suggested that high performance goals can have unintended consequences within organizations as employees engage in unethical behavior to achieve outcomes associated with goal attainment. Extending research on the dark side of goal setting, we suggest that high performance goals not only create a desire to achieve a particular outcome but also alter moral reasoning processes related to goal attainment. Integrating goal-setting theory with motivated moral reasoning, we hypothesize an indirect effect of high performance goals on unethical behavior via state moral disengagement. We also examine goal commitment—which tends to amplify the relationship between high goals and performance—as a key boundary condition associated with this indirect effect. We build this conditional indirect effect model across three studies conducted in the field and the laboratory. Our results provide new insight into both when and why high goals can facilitate moral disengagement and unethical behavior within organizations.     

生理因素对驾驶人行为及风险感知影响研究综述

为全面认识驾驶人行为及风险感知并分析行为成因，从驾驶人生理因素着手，从驾驶人视力、阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停综合征和肌肉骨骼疾患3个方面梳理国内外驾驶人行为及风险感知的研究成果与研究不足。研究结果表明:驾驶人的生理疾病对其驾驶能力和危险感知存在显著影响;生理疾病严重程度与异常驾驶行为中的一般性失误、危险性失误行为之间具有显著正相关关系，疾病严重程度越高，出行失误行为的频率越高；之后可从理论和实验两方面着手，针对驾驶人的不同属性进行研究。     

收入差距是否影响环境质量?——国内外研究综述

近年来,收入差距扩大与环境质量恶化成为许多国家同时面临的问题,也让一些经济学家开始思考,这两者之间是否存在关联。继20世纪90年代环境库兹涅茨曲线提出以来,一些研究发现不仅收入的绝对水平会对环境质量产生影响,收入差距对环境质量也有影响。本文对这一课题的理论研究进行了梳理,发现现有理论中收入差距对环境质量的影响途径主要有三条。第一条途径是消费者途径,即收入差距影响着以消费为主的个人经济行为,进一步影响着社会消费总量和消费结构,及其过程中产生的污染总量。第二条途径是企业途径,即认为收入差距的扩大会削弱环保型产品的正外部性,不利于环保技术的创新活动,对未来环境质量的改善产生动态影响。第三条途径是政府途径,即认为收入差距会影响相关的环境政策方式与强度选择;而且在不同的社会政策决策机制下,收入差距对环境政策的影响也是不同的,现有的社会决策机制分析框架主要有两种——权利权重型社会决策规则和简单多数规则。此外,本文还对现存的主要实证研究进行了总结,发现大多数研究结论都支持收入差距对环境质量存在着影响,但这种影响并不是线性的。一方面,收入差距对环境的影响与研究的污染物种类有关,大多数研究都显示,收入不平等对CO 2排放和土壤污染存在着负向影响,但有关收入差距对空气污染和水污染影响的研究结论并不统一或并不显著。另一方面,这种影响还与经济发展水平相关,在高收入国家与低收入国家是不同的,存在着阈值效应。最后本文总结了针对中国的研究现状,讨论了其在我国的适用性。     

基于演练决策文本分析的决策者分类及应急决策差异研究

为研究特大地震初期的高层决策行为，通过演练模拟决策者在可得灾情信息下进行决策部署的情形，采集参演决策者独立确认的最终决策文本为样本，对比分析样本对草案修改的方式和程度，将决策者分为独立型、合作型和依赖型。结构化处理提取样本的决策任务，分析与灾情信息及决策建议的相关性。结果表明:在高层决策者中合作型人数比例最高，群组内决策差异较小，质量相对稳定；独立型决策者偏好主观判断，对灾情的关注以及草案漏洞的审查等指标明显低于其他类型；依赖型决策者在使用合理化建议的前提下易做出高质量决策，但在决策支持失误而非漏洞的条件下，能否保证决策质量有待进一步验证。     

中国南海高温高压井钻完井损失工时事件统计分析

为研究我国南海高温高压井钻完井、测试损失工时事件规律，对2009—2018年中国南海高温高压探井钻井日志进行分析，汇总501起海上高温高压井钻完井损失工时事件，并将其划分为复杂情况及事故停工、自然停工、修理停工3大类进行研究。结果表明:复杂情况及事故停工事件数与年份无明显关联，但与地质资料准确度关系密切，修理停工事件数随年份呈现震荡下降趋势；复杂情况及事故停工总损失工时最多，其中卡钻损失工时占比最高；修理停工总损失工时最少，其中钻井设备故障损失工时占比最高；灾难天气、洋流或地质活动是造成损失工时最多的原因，不安全行为是单起事件平均损失工时最多的原因，设备老化是修理停工最主要原因。研究结果可为后续高温高压井钻完井非生产时间成本估计模型提供数据基础。     

基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析，探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径，基于社会技术系统理论，建立宏观工效学模型，通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献，从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发，识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素；运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络，对各因素节点中心度进行计算，分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度；采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习，找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中，存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位，政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺，政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理，从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

基于统计学方法的南方某市管网水水质特征研究

为综合解析南方某市管网末梢水水质的时空变化特征、识别主要响应指标及指标间相关性,以该市近4年供水管网末梢水水质监测数据为研究对象,利用主成分分析法和对应分析法对管网末梢水质进行了特征研究。主成分分析法评价结果表明:该市管网末梢水年度总体水质存在差异,其中以2016年为最佳;夏秋季节更易发生水质异常现象,5~9月应加强管网末梢水水质管控;区域上看已完成深度处理改造的梅林水厂供水覆盖区管网末梢水水质最优,南山水厂供水覆盖区管网末梢水水质最差;水质指标硫酸盐、氯化物、硬度之间,Fe、浊度、总氯之间具有相对其他水质指标更高的相关性。对应分析法结果表明:管网末梢水水质主要响应指标可重点关注Fe、浊度、耗氧量、总氯和硫酸盐;其中Fe、浊度、耗氧量呈正相关性强,上述指标与硫酸盐、总氯呈负相关性。